Current Science

Manju Zacharias ¹, S. Naresh Kumar ¹, S. D. Singh ¹, D. N. Swaroopa Rani ¹, P. K. Aggarwal ¹

Affiliations
1 Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi 110 012, IN

Abstract

Regional climate models (RCMs) are considered to be more useful than general circulation models for assessing impacts of climate change scenarios in agriculture. In this communication, the climatic outputs of an RCM-PRECIS (providing regional climates for impact studies) model were analysed by comparing its baseline simulation daily weather data on temperature and precipitation patterns with the observed weather for the corresponding period (1960-1990) in order to find out the bias in the model. Results showed that model could simulate the mean weather parameters on an aggregated scale, but could not satisfactorily represent spatio-temporal variations. There exists a bias towards higher precipitation along with more intense warm and cold events in the baseline simulation. In order to quantify the impacts of the PRECIS model biasness in baseline simulations on crop performance, rice (kharif season) and wheat (rabi season) yields were simulated using the observed weather and the PRECIS baseline weather for several locations representing the Indo-Gangetic Plains. With more extreme weather parameters in the baseline simulated data, the grain yields of rice and wheat were reduced, even causing wheat crop failure in several years as against none observed. The results indicated that using PRECIS baseline daily weather may cause bias in crop performance assessments. Since the bias in baseline will be carried forward in the assessment of future climatic impacts, there is a need to develop more reliable regional climate scenarios for the Indian region.

Keywords

Climate Change, Crop Yield, Impact Assessment, Regional Climate Models.

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Bimal Prasanna Mohanty ¹, D. Karunakaran ¹, Arabinda Mahanty ¹, Satabdi Ganguly ¹, Dipesh Debnath ¹, Tandrima Mitra ¹, Sudeshna Banerjee ¹, Anil Prakash Sharma ¹, T. V. Sankar ², R. Anandan ², Suseela Mathew ², K. K. Asha ², Kajal Chakraborty ³, P. Vijayagopal ³, B. N. Paul ⁴, N. Sridhar ⁴, S. Chanda ⁴, Debajit Sarma ⁵, Nityanand Pandey ⁵, Neetu Shahi ⁵, Pushpita Das ⁵, Partha Das ⁵, Md. Shahbaz Akhtar ⁵, J. Syama Dayal ⁶, K. K. Vijayan ⁶, S. Kannappan ⁶, G. Venkateshwarlu ⁷, S. D. Singh ⁸, Madan Mohan ⁸, B. Meenakumari ⁸, S. Ayyappan ⁹

Affiliations
1 ICAR-Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute, Barrackpore, Kolkata 700 120, IN
2 ICAR-Central Institute of Fisheries Technology, Cochin 682 029, IN
3 ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute, Cochin 682 018, IN
4 ICAR-Central Institute of Freshwater Aquaculture, Bhubhaneswar 751 002, IN
5 ICAR-Directorate of Coldwater Fisheries Research, Bhimtal 263 136, IN
6 ICAR-Central Institute of Brackishwater Aquaculture, Chennai 600 028, IN
7 ICAR-Central Institute of Fisheries Education, Mumbai 400 061, IN
8 ICAR-Fisheries Science Division, Krishi Anusandhan Bhawan II, Pusa, New Delhi 110 012, IN
9 Krishi Bhavan, Indian Council of Agricultural Research, New Delhi 110 012, IN

Abstract

No Abstract.

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